(The Daily Star, June 24, 2010)

by Praful Bidwai / Point Counterpoint

Take Bihar, one of only six states where the BJP rules. Its coalition with the Janata Dal (United) under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is critical for the survival of the National Democratic Alliance. By improving Bihar's administration and economy, Mr. Kumar has become India's most respected Chief Minister.

Without the NDA, the BJP cannot possibly win outside Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and, possibly, Rajasthan. But the NDA has shrunk as parties dissociate themselves from the BJP. They don't want stigma-by-association via Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra 'Milosevic' Modi. He led the 2002 anti-Muslim pogrom, and is a persona non grata for many foreign governments.

Therefore, some NDA parties insist that the BJP exclude Mr. Modi from public meetings. This was the understanding with Mr. Kumar. But at the BJP's June 12-13 national executive in Patna, Mr. Modi was the lead speaker.

Mr. Modi launched advertisements claiming exaggeratedly that his government had helped Bihar during last year's floods. These cheaply politicised the issue. Livid, Mr. Kumar called them "vulgar" and cancelled a dinner for BJP leaders.

The BJP recently lost two major allies -- Ms. Mamata Banerjee, whose star is rising in West Bengal, and Mr. Naveen Patnaik, whose party won the Orissa Assembly elections independently. Mr. Kumar is therefore the BJP's most valuable ally.

The BJP antagonised Mr. Kumar because its Thakur-Bhumihar faction hates him for marginalising the party in Bihar. However, the balance of power tilts naturally towards the JD(U); its base is far broader than the BJP's, which is confined to a few upper castes. If the BJP's national leadership had political sense, it would have restrained the recalcitrant faction.

Instead, it caved in and fielded Mr. Modi in Patna as its topmost leader. At the rally, Mr. Modi criticised the laudable Right to Education as intended to "pauperise the BJP's state governments."

Mr. Kumar is an astute strategist, who has consciously cultivated mahadalits (most backward dalits), extremely backward classes (among the OBCs), and socially, economically and educationally backward Muslims. If he goes solo in the coming Assembly elections, the BJP will face a rout worse than in Uttar Pradesh.

Mr. Kumar is deeply averse to Hindutva, and only a reluctant BJP ally. Further alienating him could be a costly blunder.

Letting loose a hardline Hindutva figure like Mr. Modi on Bihar will alienate many secular Hindus, besides Muslims, who form 16.5 percent of the population -- without winning the BJP many upper-caste votes.

BJP President Nitin Gadkari is politically immature and doesn't understand the Hindi heartland's complexities. He is easily manipulated by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, which appointed him. He has no independent base.

Many BJP leaders studiedly ignore Mr. Gadkari. Barring Ms. Sushma Swaraj, all prominent leaders, including Messrs L.K. Advani and Rajnath Singh, boycotted a conference he convened in preparation for the national executive.

Mr. Gadkari is unable to contain Mr. Advani's overbearing influence on organisational-political decisions, such as the nomination of maverick lawyer Ram Jethmalani from Rajasthan for the Rajya Sabha elections.

This has antagonised many cadres, as Mr. Jethmalani had quit the BJP, calling it communal, and contested a Lok Sabha election against Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee. To force BJP MLAs to vote for Mr. Jethmalani, they were locked up in a resort.

The BJP's leadership crisis is indeed grave, but it's not its only crisis. The party lacks programs or polices that offer a credible alternative to the United Progressive Alliance.

Even when criticising the UPA's patently misguided agendas such as the nuclear liability Bill, public sector divestment, the anti-Naxalite/Maoist strategy, or handling of the Bhopal disaster the BJP is too reactive to be convincing.

Unlike the Left, which opposes the principle of capping liability for nuclear accidents which are potentially catastrophic the BJP only wants the Rs.500 crore compensation ceiling doubled. But a Chernobyl-type accident will wreak damage, running into lakhs of crores.

The BJP's behaviour towards the victims of the 1984 disaster at Union Carbide's factory in Bhopal is shameful. It was in power in Madhya Pradesh for much of the time after the 1989 settlement but treated the victims with the utmost callousness. Its rehabilitation minister Babulal Gaur himself says the BJP didn't help them when in power nationally.

Senior BJP leader and lawyer Arun Jaitley has certified that Dow, which bought Carbide, is not liable for cleaning up the contaminated Bhopal plant.

The BJP thus sides with corporate criminals. On containing Maoism and jehadi terrorism, it is squarely on the UPA's Right. Its policies are a prescription for more disasters.

Equally important, the BJP is gripped by an ideological identity crisis. It has failed to distance itself from the RSS and define itself as a "normal" party. It remains stuck in the antiquarian, anti-modernist and sectarian notion of Hindu Rashtra. It has no strategy for political mobilisation, which can shore up its sinking base.

As multiple crises undermine its credibility and appeal, the BJP's influence is shrinking. Can it resist further contraction and marginalisation? Does it have a long-term future?

The honest answer is, the BJP's fate does not lie in its own hands. It can become a force only if its opponents blunder and hand over to it readymade issues like Shah Bano, or if it can recreate the moribund Ram Janambhoomi movement.

Alternatively, the BJP could gain from some extraordinary but unforeseeable events like, say, an Indo-Pakistan war, to end which the Indian government accepts a bad compromise, or totally fails to act in the event of yet another Mumbai-type terrorist attack.

None of this seems likely. The most plausible scenario is that the BJP, wedded to a foul exclusionist ideology, will continue to be at one extreme of politics. Its committed upper-caste, upper-class elite support base will remain too small to form the core of a broad social coalition.

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist. Email: bidwai@bol.net.in